Finding Value

Yesterday I talked you through the basics of how to understand odds and what they represent. Now that is the easy part. Implementing this into our betting is the trickier part and I'll attempt to explain this fully in today's post.

As I'm sure you're aware there are 100's of variables in horse racing and to spend time analysing every one would take about a week for one race!!

So let's keep it simple. The three variables I'll be concentrating on are Trainers strike rates, Jockeys strike rates and simple horse form.

If we head over to the racing post every morning we can click on the statistics tab above the meeting and we get a page telling us the strike rate of both trainer and jockey and their profit and loss to level stakes of £1.00

By finding a trainer with a strike rate of 20% at that specific course is a good start and if we can find a jockey with a similar strike rate riding for our trainer then we have found a possible bet.

If we remember yesterday I showed you how to work out the probability from the odds, well with trainer and jockey stats that represent a 20% strike rate we can assume that the correct price for the horse should be around the 4/1 mark.

4/1 in probability is 20% as 4 divided by 1 plus one equals 5, 100 divided by 5 equals 20%

Now if we believe that the horse has a good chance by looking at his form and the market has our horse priced up at 9/2 then we have found a value bet.

The above is not a direct route to making a profit, it is merely an example to show you how you can play around with the variables and determine what you believe to be value!

When starting a new approach, you must always play with paper money and record every bet. If you see a profit after a 100 bets then your probably onto a winner!

If you want all the hard work done for you then remember you can join my winning service over at Value At The Races today. We have shown over 60 points profit in the last 5 months and the service continues to provide winners on a regular basis.

Next time I'll be discussing my approach to Cheltenham and how I build my portfolio for the big festival.

Until then, Happy Punting,

Regards,

Ed
Value At The Races