By browsing through the posts on this blog you'll see my interpretation of that elusive "Value". All my selections are tipped as I believe they are over-priced. To date my selections have beaten the market 86% of the time.
Our current strike rate is 28.87% and the average odds are 9/2 with the average SP returning just over 7/2.
So I'm getting the Value bit right but how do I arrive at my selections?
Over 3 years ago now I read a book by Dave Nevison and I was fascinated by his approach to creating a "tissue" This meant pricing a race up with my own odds and then if the market was bigger than my price then I had found a bet.
Every evening or morning I select the handicaps I will be tackling and start looking through each declared runner. I break the race down into form reading, trainer and jockey strike rates and general trends from the last 10 years. Each horse is then given a rating and with this rating I then go about pricing up my book.
As long as I think the horse has a good chance of winning and the market is bigger than my "tissue" price then it becomes a "tip"
As an example I thought I'd run through my reasoning behind the 2035 @ Southwell this evening.
Selection: Beachwood Bay @ 4/1
The horse likes it around Southwell with three wins, a second and a third under his belt. Although not having won in a class 5 on this occasion I feel that it shouldn't be a problem having been fairly treated by the handicapper.
The trainer Jo Hughes is in terrific form at the moment with a 33% SR in the last 14 days. That's 2 winners from 6 and an overall, impressive 23% SR overall on the all weather. Delving a little deeper, Jo is showing a 15% SR with her horses over 6 furlongs which is a good SR in my book.
From looking at the other horses, I believe that Clear Spring to be the main danger but at the time of writing, 9/4 is way too short in what could be a fairly competitve affair. Using the above and implementing statistics with all the other horses I then arrived at the below "Tissue"
Punching 11/1
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Salik Tag 8/1
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Clear Spring 5/1
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Bay 3/1
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Elhamri 20/1
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Ace Of Spies 14/1
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Tunnager Grove 5/1
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Gracie´s Gift 10/1
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Now if you add all the percentages up on the above tissue you will notice that it's very close to a 100% (102.12%) . This is because I've not included an over round into my calculations like a bookmaker would. As you can see, I fancy Beachwood Bay and believe that the horse is a 3/1 shot. Having looked at the market this morning, I was able to get on at 4/1. I now have a value bet and we should get a good run for our money.
Any questions then please leave a comment below and I'll answer as soon as possible.
Regards,
Ed
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