Finding Value

Yesterday I talked you through the basics of how to understand odds and what they represent. Now that is the easy part. Implementing this into our betting is the trickier part and I'll attempt to explain this fully in today's post.

As I'm sure you're aware there are 100's of variables in horse racing and to spend time analysing every one would take about a week for one race!!

So let's keep it simple. The three variables I'll be concentrating on are Trainers strike rates, Jockeys strike rates and simple horse form.

If we head over to the racing post every morning we can click on the statistics tab above the meeting and we get a page telling us the strike rate of both trainer and jockey and their profit and loss to level stakes of £1.00

By finding a trainer with a strike rate of 20% at that specific course is a good start and if we can find a jockey with a similar strike rate riding for our trainer then we have found a possible bet.

If we remember yesterday I showed you how to work out the probability from the odds, well with trainer and jockey stats that represent a 20% strike rate we can assume that the correct price for the horse should be around the 4/1 mark.

4/1 in probability is 20% as 4 divided by 1 plus one equals 5, 100 divided by 5 equals 20%

Now if we believe that the horse has a good chance by looking at his form and the market has our horse priced up at 9/2 then we have found a value bet.

The above is not a direct route to making a profit, it is merely an example to show you how you can play around with the variables and determine what you believe to be value!

When starting a new approach, you must always play with paper money and record every bet. If you see a profit after a 100 bets then your probably onto a winner!

If you want all the hard work done for you then remember you can join my winning service over at Value At The Races today. We have shown over 60 points profit in the last 5 months and the service continues to provide winners on a regular basis.

Next time I'll be discussing my approach to Cheltenham and how I build my portfolio for the big festival.

Until then, Happy Punting,

Regards,

Ed
Value At The Races

What Is Value?

Hello and welcome to the Value At The Races' Blog.

Here you will find what I'm all about, how I make my money and general musings regarding Horse Racing and punting life.

For my first post I thought I'd give you an example of what I determine as value and how you can implement this into your betting.

The first thing to understand is how odds represent the probability of an outcome. For example, when you see the odds of 3/1 displayed from a bookie, they are suggesting that the horse in question has a 25% chance of winning that race.

To calculate this we divide the left hand number, in this case the 3, by the right hand number and add 1. This gives us 4.

We then divide 100 (there is a 100% chance a horse will win a race!) by the 4, giving us 25%

Let's do another one. 7/2 would therefore be 7 divided by 2 plus 1=4.5

100 divided by 4.5= 22.22%

So the next time you look at the odds you can now determine what the bookie is suggesting the probability of a horse winning is.

Now let's create a scenario here that we can equate to real life.

You fancy a horse that you believe has around a 25% (3/1) chance of winning its race. Imagine that 25% as a value equal to the value of a product you want to buy.

You walk into a bookies with this 25% in mind. You ask for the price of the horse and you are told it is 7/2. You know that this is 22.22%

So in reality you are able to "purchase" the horses chance at a discount!!

Imagine you wanted a new coat that cost £25.00. If you could get the exact same coat for £22.22p you would!

So the next time you fancy a horse, shop around and look for the value, in essence, the bigger the price you can get, the bigger the discount!

If you want expertly selected "Value" Tips like this the head over to Value At The Races where all the hard work is done for you.

My next post will be on how you can find your own value and start to make money from backing horses.

Until then, Happy Punting,

Regards,

Ed