A Free Angle

I thought I'd introduce you to a clever little trick today that you can use to follow the market and find a few winners. It involves following the money in a horse race and using it to your advantage. The below example relies on three principles. The horse has to be in the top four in the betting forecast, already been gambled on and still be in the top two most popular bets in the market according to Oddschecker. It's not difficult to find these three factors and you'll be amazed how many winners you'll find!

Firstly I look at the first four in the betting from the racing post's forecast as you'll see below:

As you can see this highlights 7 horses. The reason I choose the racing post's forecast is that it is very good at getting the market right. We now need to see if the horse has had money for it by heading over to At The Races.

On this page we will see that the below horses have had some money coming for them:

You'll see that Porters War and Another Trump have seen some money for them. However, looking at Porters War, he's not met our first criteria of being in the top four of the betting forecast.

We now head over to Oddschecker and look at the pie chart at the bottom of the odds table and we see this:

As you can see from this the money is around equal for Porters War and Another Trump. The only horse from the two that has met all three factors is Another Trump so this is the selection.

The results are as follows:

As always, I only recommend playing around with this concept with paper money and when you feel comfortable with it and have shown a profit on paper, should you use it as part of your portfolio. As with anything to do with the market, it is always open to interpretation. Another Trump was ridden by A P McCoy so you could argue the money was coming from his legions of fans!?!

Let me know what you think in the comments box below and as always, leave me a question and I will get back to you as soon as possible.

Regards,

Ed

Some VATR Stats and What's to Come!

Hello and welcome to any new readers here at the Value At The Races blog.

Please take some time to read my previous entries and of course the below ramblings!

I know some people are put off by the lack of explanation as to why I arrive at a selection on the daily advice e-mail. The purposes of this site are to help people understand that every tip I send out has been well thought out and represents value from the calculations that I use. I'd also like to add that the tips sent out are part of my daily portfolio and are backed by myself at all times.

Anyway back to the service and how it has performed over the last 12 months. The service went live on the 20th February 2012. We were well into the back end of the jumps season at this point and a lot of my energy was gearing itself up for the flat season. Suffice to say this flat season has been the hardest and most testing times of my professional punting career! I've still managed to turn a profit but there has been no holiday for myself and Mrs VATR!!

So as I'm sure you're aware we need to treat betting as a long term investment so here are some figures for the service, had you been with me from day one.

Start of service (20/02/12) till end of Feb: +11.70 Points
March: +36.37 Points
April: -4.624 Points
May: -17.989 Points
June: +16.239 Points
July: +5.666  Points
August: +10.508 Points
September: -10.802 Points
October till today (15/10/12); +20.808 Points

Total: + 67.858 Points

The cost of subscribing to the service would have cost you over that period of time 38.40 Points of your bank so your overall profit would have been 29.458 Points. I know that is not amazing but it is a profit and as part of a portfolio is certainly worth its contribution.

We are now coming into our 9th month of being live and I strongly believe that the service will continue to profit as we head into the jumps. I have been burning the midnight oil over the last two months and have unearthed every single profitable statistic for the jumps and the All Weather with trainers, jockeys, horses, going, tracks and combinations galore! Going on the data I have for the last 5 years I would be looking to make well over 60 points profit between now and the end of February 2013. A bold statement but every angle I use is different to that of the bookie so it is a proven fact that we will turn a profit.

I will be publishing another post later on today that will give you a bit more of an insight into how I arrive at my selections and how I interpret "Value" which will keep my service in profit over the years to come.

Any questions, please leave a comment and I will answer within 24 hours.

Regards,

Ed